Two-Test package approach to address the NEET Examination crisis

It is said that when an excessively large number of candidates compete directly for a limited number of seats in a single examination, the process creates enormous psychological pressure to succeed in a life-changing event and encourages an unhealthy culture of repetitive coaching and examination preparation. The situation potentially invites all kinds of corrupt practices. Let us study three all-India examinations that are being conducted centrally - the Admission Test for Engineering Colleges, Selection in UPSC Civil Services, and the NEET Admission Test for Medical Colleges. The following table clearly displays that the NEET examination is well placed with a much better promise for success since the probability is ‘one out of 15.8’ as against ‘one out of 22.4’ in the Engineering Test and the mind-boggling ‘one out of 602' in the Civil Services exams.

 

It is interesting to note that while the pressure of manipulation should have been the largest for civil services exams, making it potentially exploitable for coaching and related mafia, it performs the best with unquestioned sanctity. Let us study the issue in further detail.

Engineering Test

In engineering admissions, approximately 15 lakh candidates compete for around 67,000 highly sought-after seats, producing a competition ratio of roughly 22.4 candidates per seat. This pressure is eased out in two stages. First, a broader pool of approximately 1.8 lakh aspirants are shortlisted, wherein the success ratio is approximately ‘one out of 8.3.' The next stage of the advanced selection process then selects 67000 candidates out of the 1.8 lakh shortlisted pool of students, and this makes a fairly balanced success rate as ‘one out of 2.67.'

Civil Services Test

The Civil Services examination provides an instructive model to study. Approximately 9,37,876 candidates applied last year, and 5,76,793 appeared for the Preliminary Examination. The preliminary test shortlisted only 14,161 candidates for the Main Examination, creating a success rate of approximately ‘one out of every 40.7 candidates’ reaching the Mains. Subsequently, only 2,736 candidates qualified for the personality test, meaning that approximately ‘one out of a group of 5.2 candidates’ succeeded in reaching the interview stage. Finally, against approximately 958 vacancies, the final selection ratio was brought down to roughly ‘one out of 2.9 candidates.' In other words, the Civil Services Examination does not require nearly six lakh candidates to compete directly at the final stage. Instead, it uses successive stages to progressively reduce the number of candidates until the final competition becomes manageable. 

Study of NEET Examination

The above analysis clearly indicates that despite being placed well with the success rate in its favor with a large number of seats available, the NEET test provides a potentially fertile ground for manipulation for the coaching mafia only because it conducts the admission for all candidates in one go. NEET examinations demonstrate a severe imbalance in this sense. Around 22.7 lakh candidates registered for NEET, while approximately 22.1 lakh actually appeared last year. Against roughly 1.39 lakh medical seats, this represents a competition ratio of approximately 15.9 candidates per seat. 

The Civil Services examination reveals that a lighter kind of preliminary test to shortlist candidates to ease out the success rate pressure is the key for its success. Even though the preliminary test of civil services has a success rate of ‘one out of 40,' it might have encouraged the coaching industry to grow but fails to draw the attention of the education mafia to manipulate the same because the stakes are not high and candidates are better placed to accept their exclusion at this stage. The first stage of examination, therefore, should be light, preferably a single test with multiple-choice questions. The shortlisting should leave the success rate for the final selection process preferable around ‘one out of 3’ candidates. This creates a favorable environment for the agency to conduct the final examination in a rigorous manner only at time-tested venues and involving only known individuals with proven credentials. 

The Recommendation

If India has approximately 1.39 lakh MBBS and other relevant medical seats, and the objective is to ensure that the final examination does not have a competition ratio worse than 3:1, then the number of candidates permitted to take the final-stage NEET examination should ideally be approximately 1.39 lakh × 3 = 4.17 lakh candidates. Thus, instead of allowing more than 22 lakh candidates to compete directly for approximately 1.39 lakh seats, a preliminary examination could be conducted to shortlist approximately 4–4.5 lakh candidates for the final examination. The following table suggests the same.

One must note that rejection at the preliminary exams is not taken that seriously. The proposed NEET Preliminary Examination should not be treated as an additional burden or a second full-scale NEET examination. It should instead function primarily as a screening mechanism. The examination could test fundamental eligibility, basic scientific aptitude, and essential knowledge of physics, chemistry, and biology. Its purpose would be to identify candidates who have achieved a minimum level of preparedness for medical education. A single paper, light intensity MCQ-type online examination can serve the purpose of this shortlisting. The solution lies in keeping the success rate in the main final examination as less than one out of three candidates. Other factors - such as involvement of non-permanent staff in conducting the exams - can always be observed rigorously in the final test since the scale will become manageable.

Such a system would have several advantages. First, it would substantially reduce the extreme pressure associated with a single examination involving more than twenty lakh competitors. Second, it would help the conducting agency to take good control with all loopholes plugged in the final examination because of its reduced scale—cutting it to one fifth of the present enormity. A ‘3 to 1’ competition ratio at the final stage would represent a more humane, rational, and academically defensible model of medical selection.