A supporter’s analysis of - Bihar Election Results

(Published in the Millennium post in the issue of 13 november 2015, http://millenniumpost.in/NewsContent.aspx?NID=166146 )
      Delhi and then in Bihar, election results have thrown the biggest challenge to the BJP since Modi became its driving force. The high-energy election campaign that worked for Amit Shah and Modi in recent times, failed to yield similar results in Delhi and Bihar. Modi is however, known for converting challenges into opportunities; infusing hopes during adverse circumstances; transforming despair and despondency into hope; injecting energy into dejected admirers; turning adversaries into admirers and successfully reversing the opposition strategies into his own advantage. I am sure, his admirers including me are feeling dejected at Bihar Election results, but not him.

     Statistically speaking, the strategy of Shah and Modi has worked even during these elections very well in retaining the loyal voters with them. They have been successfully maintaining the vote-shares despite going through these trying circumstances. The extreme ‘intolerant’ opposition of BJP and especially Modi, has provided enough reasons to keep BJP supporters on their edges, completely alert and active. Due to all this, votes in favour of BJP could never decrease any significantly even in these landslide and one-sided results. This is also the reason that even in these elections, feedback received by the leaders were identical to those when BJP reported landslide victories.

     So, where have they gone wrong? 

    There are more than many theories on offer even within BJP. RSS trying to cut Modi to his size; Advani supporters engineering these debacles; Modi’s diminishing popularity or his supporters getting disillusioned – but none of these would be able to explain how he has been able to retain the voters with him. These results, not surprisingly, give an opportunity to certain elements within BJP, to vent out their frustrations even on those issues that only remotely be considered as one of the reasons for the loss. Besides this, BJP has been ‘fortunate’ enough that even their adversaries do not shy away from advising Modi to ‘correct’ himself. After all they must have never gone through such a fear of extinction as they would have felt this time whenever this government displayed any success potentials.

    In my analysis, more than the problems within, in fact BJP lost these elections only because their aggressive style of campaigning forced its opposition to unite and huddle. BJP must realize that in the present circumstances, they are bound to lose against a united opposition. Statistically, if votes were shared between AAP and Congress in Delhi elections or if Nitish and Lalu were not united in Bihar, BJP would have swept these elections with the existing share of votes. In fact one of the prime reasons of the success of Modi in the general elections 2014 has been that his opposition never believed that Modi would ever be able to cross the mark. Statistically it can never be denied that in 2014 elections, historically, BJP got the highest number of seats with smallest percentage share of votes only because the opposition never felt any reason to get united. Even in Gujarat, only in the last assembly elections, BJP was in a position of taking on a united opposition.

     Now, to turn the tide in their favour, BJP needs to convince their voters that they can deliver on their promises. Once the voters are convinced, only then as per the Gujarat model, even a united opposition would fail to make any impact. Till then, instead of following the recent short-term impact style campaigns, BJP needs to work on twin long term strategies. Firstly, they must direct their aggression to display enough examples and hints that they would be able to deliver on their promises and secondly they must try to identify potential local leaders having clean images and help them build their images on issues of common interest following a long term plan. A loss in Bihar has saved BJP from raising the expectations of the voters further that would have burdened the leadership unnecessarily. And just as Modi had controlled the lunatic elements present on his side during his Gujarat tenure, he must stop everyone from interacting with media who would keep him engaged in explanations and other damage control exercises and would derail him from his single and winning plank of development.